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CPM/PERT , Line balancing , Inventory , Cost , Basics of project management , General studies , UPSC ESE

 CPM/PERT


PERT is preferred over CPM as it reflects realistic scenario.






Earliest expected occurance time

  • Time which event expected to occur earliest.
  • When all activities leading to it are completed.




Latest allowable occurence time
  • Time by which event must occur to keep project as schedule.
  • Denoted by TL.

EOT
  • forward pass
  • merger point crucial
LOT
  • backward pass
  • burst point crucial
Stack: difference between LOT & EOT
  • Positive slack : ahead of schedule
  • Zero slack : on schedule
  • Negative slack : behind schedule
Activity times:
  • Earliest start time : earliest possible time at which event can be started.
  • Earliest finish time : earliest time by which activity can be completed.
  • Latest start time : latest time by which activity should be started without delaying the project.
  • Latest finish time: latest time by which activity be completed.
Critical method
  • Path along which no activity has float.
  • It represent path of longest duration in a network.
  • It is shortest time taken to complete project.
In PERT , when there are more than one path with same expected duration , path with more uncertainity is considered critical path.
 
Floats:

Total float:
  • Maximum delay possible without delaying project.
  • Maximum available time - actual time required 
  • Takes away chance of delay from  succeeding event.
Free float:
  • Delay possible without affecting start of subsequent activity at its EST.
  • Excess time available such that its successor also starts as early as possible.
Independent float:
  • Delay possible such that it doesn't affect float of preceding as well as succeding activities.
Interference float:
  • Difference of total float and free float.
Line balancing:
  • To increase capacity of utilisation.
  • Optimal utilisation of labour hours.
Production rate : determined by slowest station

Cycle time: established by bottleneck station.

Balance delay : measures line inefficiency.

Project cost:


Total cost:
Crashing : 
  • It is reducing project duration .
  • Done along critical path. 
  • Done for activity of least cost slope. 
  • Cost slope = (crash cost - normal cost)/(normal time - crash time)
Budgeting techniques


Cost estimates







Cost funnel / progressive elaboration
  • As project becomes more elaborate and detailed it has more accurate estimates. 
  • It is also called as rolling wave planning. 


Risk management 

Risk 
  • Uncertain event
  • Impact is positive for opportunity and negative for threat 
  • Probability and outcome both are known. 
Steps for Risk management:  objective is to identify risk , take activity to minimise threats and maximize opportunities. 

Methods for Risk management are brainstorm ,Delphi , SWOT , root cause, expert judgement. 

Risk register :it contains list of all identified risk and potential actions to be taken if they occur.

  • Contains risk category ,risk description, risk impact , risk probability , risk severity, risk ownership, contingency plan. 
Risk analysis
  •  Risk score = probability x impact 

Methods 

Sensitivity analysis 
  • Changes are risk variable at a time. 
  • Output is TORANADD DIAGRAM  which gives relative importance of variables 
Expected monetary value analysis (EMV) 
  • If emv is positive then its for opportunity and negative for threat .
Decision tree analysis
  • Graphical method of selecting the best course. 
  • Interconnects event chronologically. 
Modelling and simulation 
  • Used Monte Carlo technique. 
  • Probability distribution is randomly assigned and may also use various input probability distribution. 
Game theory : it is used for decision making in competing environment. 

Risk response : depending on threat or opportunity. 

Project monitoring and control 
  • Monitor : observe ,collect, record and report. 
  • Control : using data collected to bring actual program performance to planned performance. 
S curve analysis 
  • Helps identify project growth , project slippage and other problems. 
Baseline s curve : from baseline schedule 

Target S curve :  reflect revised ambitions at an instant. 

Cost overrun : project spend more than its planned budget. 
Cost under run: project is spending less than its planned budget. 

Earned value analysis

Planned value or budgeted cost of work schedule
  • Work schedule to be completed and value corresponding to it. 
Earned value or budgeted cost of work performed 
  • Amount of work actually completed and value corresponding to it. 
Actual cost or actual cost of work performed. 
  • Money actually spent in earning the earned value of money. 
Variance and performance index 
Note : EV always first , >1 is beneficial 

Critical ratio - also called cost schedule index
CR = CPI x SPI
<1:Things are worse than planned 
=1:things are as per plan 
>1:things better than plan  

In future : project completion after observation point .
  1. Estimate to completion 
  2. Estimate at completion 
  3. Budget at completion 
  4. Variance at completion
BAC -  budget allocated to project 
EAC - new production for project based on performance and risk. 

  1. VAC : value by project cost overruns or underarms 
  2. Estimated CPI = (BAC/EAC)
  3. To complete CPI = (BAC-EV/BAC-AC) (when project is under budgeted). 
Resource utilisation 
  • Resources must be utilised optimally to achieve highest productivity and avoid any under utilisation or over utilisation. 
Histogram : are used to show requirement of resources.

Resource levelling :
  • Resources unlimited 
  • Duration constrained 
Resource smoothing 
  • Resources limited 
  • Duration can be changed 
Project updation 
  • When changes are made in aspect of project. 
  • Frequent for short projects. 
  • Also when project approaches end of project. 
  • Activities are neither added nor deleted in it. 
Schedule compression 
  • Two popular techniques are fast tracking and crashing. 
  • Crashing : reduce project duration by increasing resources on activity. 
  • Fast-tracking : refers to carrying out activities concurrently. 
Inventory control and monitoring

Inventory : has idle resources which have economic value. 

Types of system :

Classification :criteria  ----- ABC analysis :usage value , XYZ analysis :investment / variability , HML analysis :unit price ,VED analysis: criticality of item , SDE analysis  :procurement difficulty, GOLF analysis : source of requirement ,SOS analysis: seasonality ,FSN analysis : issues from store. 

EOQ model 
  • Its quantity of material that minimise total annual cost for material in fixed order quantity inventory system. 
Assumption 
  • Demand constant 
  • Lead  time constant 
  • Unit price constant 
  • Ordering cost per order constant 
  • Inventory carrying cost based on average inventory 

Project execution 
  • Where actual work occurs. 
  • Manage expectation of stakeholders while protecting the scope. 
Project closure : after delivery of output it is essential to - 
  • Contract closure
  • Lesson learnt documentation --- will form organisational process assets. 
Audit 
  • Unbiased evaluation of work performed. 
Objective 
  • Build up information base. 
  • Establish performance. 
  • Understand about problems. 






Timeline audits : the post audits are carried in two phases 
  • First phase : immediately after closing project 
  • Second phase:  2 to 3 years after closing. 
First phase: verify whether project achieved its objective or not 

Second phase : verify performance of projects deliverable.

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